THE Vistage CEO Confidence Index surged to 101.1 in 4Q2025, marking a decisive shift into expansionary territory. The 8.2-point or 9% quarter-over-quarter increase is the largest in three years (Figure 1). It indicates a sharp improvement in CEO optimism following a modest turnaround inQ3. This second consecutive quarter of increase in the index breaks a prior three-quarter downtrend, confirming a positive inflection point.Crossing the benchmark level of 100 reflects a fundamental shift from contractionary to expansionary sentiments. The surge was likely bolsteredby recent robust data, including higher-than-expected GDP growth of 5.2% in 3Q2025 and double-digit trade performance in September andOctober 2025. While the higher index in 4Q2025 points to improved expectations for revenue, investment and hiring in the near future, it wouldneed to exceed 110 to signify robust confidence.