The Vistage CEO Confidence Index plunged by 29 points (29%) to 72.1 in the first quarter of 2026 (Figure 1). The survey was conducted between 24 March and 8 April 2026, approximately one month after the outbreak of the Israel/U.S.-Iran war on February 28, 2026. The conflict disrupted global energy supplies, pushing Brent crude oil prices above $100 per barrel during the survey period.

The magnitude of the decline in the overall confidence index is nearly double the drop recorded in Q2 2025 following the implementation of Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, but less than half the plunge observed in Q2 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. Falling below the 100 threshold, the index signals weaker growth expectations for the second quarter and beyond, contrasting with the stronger-than-expected growth performance seen in the second half of 2025.

While the decline in confidence is less severe than during the pandemic lockdowns, it is notably worse than the tariff shock of Q2 2025, suggesting that supply disruptions are now seen as a greater threat than trade policy. Businesses are responding by adjusting production, building inventories, and diversifying inputs. For policymakers, the priority is clear, that is, to bolster energy security and supply chain resilience to prevent weak confidence from translating into sustained contraction.